43 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2015
Date Written: December 30, 2014
Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest rates unrelated to home economic conditions. We use novel instrumental variable local projection methods to demonstrate that loose monetary conditions lead to booms in real estate lending and house prices bubbles; these, in turn, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era.
Keywords: house prices, monetary policy, financial crises
JEL Classification: E020, E420, N100
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Jorda, Oscar and Schularick, Moritz and Taylor, Alan M., Betting the House (December 30, 2014). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5147. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2550176