The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Evaluating the 'Landing Zone' for Negotiations

73 Pages Posted: 17 Jan 2015 Last revised: 8 Apr 2015

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; C.D. Howe Institute; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite Sum Modeling; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: September 21, 2014

Abstract

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiation is searching for a “landing zone” – a set of compromises that will allow a deal to be concluded. We assess the potential impact of the TPP based on a “best guess” as to what the landing zone will look like, taking into account such information as has been made public on the state of the negotiations (including unofficially released texts) as well as what participating states have been prepared to offer in other recently concluded FTAs. The assessment takes into account the conclusion of the Australia-Japan FTA, which reduces the quantitative impact of the TPP and draws on the outcomes of that negotiation as an indication of how other key negotiating issues might be decided. The assessment is based on a dynamic specification of the GTAP model, modified to directly represent services trade conducted through foreign affiliates as well as on a cross-border basis, and to reflect the impact of liberalization of FDI in the services sectors. The simulations take into account tariff reductions, preference utilization, the compliance cost of using preferences, the regionalization of rules of origin, and the reduction of non-tariff barriers to goods, services and investment. We report overall impacts and comment specifically on Canada’s interests.

Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, Canada, CGE model, trade liberalization, FTA, FDI liberalization, Mode 3 services trade

JEL Classification: F02, F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Xiao, Jingliang, The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Evaluating the 'Landing Zone' for Negotiations (September 21, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2550935 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550935

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
München, 80639
Germany

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite Sum Modeling ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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