Long-Run Bulls and Bears

39 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2015

See all articles by Rui A. Albuquerque

Rui A. Albuquerque

Boston College, Carroll School of Management; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Martin Eichenbaum

Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Dimitris Papanikolaou

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Sergio T. Rebelo

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2015

Abstract

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock market. We call these swings long-run bull and bear episodes. We find that there is a high correlation between stock returns and fundamentals across bull and bear episodes. This correlation is much higher than the analogous time-series correlations. We show that several asset pricing models cannot simultaneously account for the low time-series and high episode correlations.

Suggested Citation

Albuquerque, Rui A. and Eichenbaum, Martin and Papanikolaou, Dimitris and Tavares Rebelo, Sergio, Long-Run Bulls and Bears (January 2015). NBER Working Paper No. w20858, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2551666

Rui A. Albuquerque (Contact Author)

Boston College, Carroll School of Management ( email )

140 Commonwealth Avenue
Chestnut Hill, MA 02467-3808
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/ruialbuquerque/home

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI) ( email )

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Martin Eichenbaum

Northwestern University ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Dimitris Papanikolaou

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management - Department of Finance ( email )

Evanston, IL 60208
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Sergio Tavares Rebelo

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Leverone Hall
Evanston, IL 60208
United States
847-467-2329 (Phone)
847-491-5719 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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