Making the Most out of Speculative Market Forecasts

13 Pages Posted: 21 Jan 2015 Last revised: 19 Jan 2020

Date Written: January 19, 2015


This paper presents a mathematical model to make optimal trading decisions using forecasts made by multivariate regression. Given that these results are uncertain, the model maximizes the expected profit from opening and closing trade positions. To this end, a dynamic programming approach is employed. We first find the optimal take profit levels associated with buy and sell positions. Then we decide to buy, sell or wait, based on the maximum expected profit in each case. The approach is applied to find the optimal strategy for trading GBPUSD rate based on a multivariate regression model fitted to the historical daily data in the FOREX Market.

Keywords: Forecasting, Multivariate Regression, Take Profit, Financial Market, Optimal Trading

Suggested Citation

Khaledi, Hamed, Making the Most out of Speculative Market Forecasts (January 19, 2015). Available at SSRN: or

Hamed Khaledi (Contact Author)

McCombs School of Business ( email )

2110 Speedway
CBA 3.406
Austin, TX N/A 78751
United States

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