Finding the Hidden Dragon: Why Closer Economic Relations with Taiwan Makes the U.S. More Prosperous

Research Report, Dawson Strategic and Ciuriak Consulting Inc., 2014

50 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2015 Last revised: 29 Apr 2015

Laura Ritchie Dawson

Carleton University - Centre for Trade Policy and Law

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; C.D. Howe Institute; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Date Written: November 1, 2014

Abstract

Taiwan has indicated its interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. In this report, we evaluate the implications of Taiwan's accession for the United States to inform the negotiation process. We consider the sectoral export prospects for U.S. industry and provide estimates of the overall economic gains for the U.S. of the TPP12 and a TPP13 that includes Taiwan. We find that Taiwan's accession strongly expands the liberalization potential of the TPP, raising the overall gains for the original 12 members by over US$ 20 billion, or by 25% compared to the TPP12 scenario. Taking into account Taiwan's gains, the overall gains from a TPP13 compared to a TPP12 amounts to an additional $50 billion. The U.S. is one of the major beneficiaries of Taiwan's accession, with services and investment liberalization being important drivers for the gains..

Keywords: Taiwan, United States, Trans Pacific Partnership, TPP, Accession, TPP, CGE, sectors

JEL Classification: F14, F15, F17

Suggested Citation

Dawson, Laura Ritchie and Ciuriak, Dan, Finding the Hidden Dragon: Why Closer Economic Relations with Taiwan Makes the U.S. More Prosperous (November 1, 2014). Research Report, Dawson Strategic and Ciuriak Consulting Inc., 2014. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2552115

Laura Ritchie Dawson (Contact Author)

Carleton University - Centre for Trade Policy and Law ( email )

Ottawa, Ontario
Canada

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
M√ľnchen, 80639
Germany

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