Biased volatility perceptions: Evidence from the laboratory and financial markets

Abstract

Applying a well-established neuroscience framework to the issue of investor perception of volatility, we propose that after prolonged exposure to high volatility, investors tend to underestimate volatility due to adaptation to the high volatility, and vice versa. Using a combination of field and laboratory tests, we find strong support for this hypothesis. The evidence suggests that this neurobiologically-grounded perceptual bias can cause distortions of asset prices in sophisticated and liquid financial markets.

Keywords: behavioral finance, neurofinance, risk perception, decision making under uncertainty, efficient coding

JEL Classification: D91, G02, G41