Is Volatility Clustering of Asset Returns Asymmetric?
Posted: 26 Jan 2015
Date Written: January 25, 2015
Volatility clustering is a well-known stylized feature of financial asset returns. This paper investigates asymmetric pattern in volatility clustering by employing a univariate copula approach of Chen and Fan (2006). Using daily realized kernel volatilities constructed from high frequency data from stock and foreign exchange markets, we find evidence that volatility clustering is highly nonlinear and strongly asymmetric in that clusters of high volatility occur more often than clusters of low volatility. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first one to address and uncover this phenomenon. In particular, the asymmetry in volatility clustering is found to be more pronounced in the stock markets than in the foreign exchange markets. Further, the volatility clusters are shown to remain persistent for over a month and asymmetric across different time periods. Our findings have important implications for risk management. A simulation study indicates that models which accommodate asymmetric volatility clustering can significantly improve the out-of-sample forecasts of Value-at-Risk.
Keywords: Volatility clustering, Univariate time series copulas, Realized kernel volatility, Value-at-Risk
JEL Classification: C51, G32
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