Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-Industrial England
24 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2015
Date Written: 2014
In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity: large temperature variations lower productivity. We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.
Keywords: Climatic conditions, TFP shocks, real wages, real rents
JEL Classification: C22, N13, O41, O47, Q54
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation