Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-Industrial England

24 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2015

See all articles by Stéphane Auray

Stéphane Auray

CREST-Ensai

Aurélien Eyquem

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE)

Frédéric Jouneau-Sion

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE)

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity: large temperature variations lower productivity. We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.

Keywords: Climatic conditions, TFP shocks, real wages, real rents

JEL Classification: C22, N13, O41, O47, Q54

Suggested Citation

Auray, Stéphane and Eyquem, Aurélien and Jouneau-Sion, Frédéric, Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-Industrial England (2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2556118 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2556118

Stéphane Auray (Contact Author)

CREST-Ensai ( email )

15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri
Malakoff Cedex, 1 92245
France

Aurélien Eyquem

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE) ( email )

93, chemin des Mouilles
Ecully, 69130
France

Frédéric Jouneau-Sion

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE) ( email )

93, chemin des Mouilles
Ecully, 69130
France

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