Strong Claims and Weak Evidence: Reassessing the Predictive Validity of the IAT

Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 94, No. 3, 567-582, 2009, DOI: 10.1037/a0014665

U of Penn, Inst for Law & Econ Research Paper No. 15-4

17 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2015 Last revised: 26 Feb 2015

See all articles by Hart Blanton

Hart Blanton

Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology

James Jaccard

Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology

Jonathan Klick

University of Pennsylvania Law School; Erasmus School of Law; PERC - Property and Environment Research Center

Barb Mellers

University of Pennsylvania, Psychology; University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School

Gregory Mitchell

University of Virginia School of Law

Philip Tetlock

University of Pennsylvania

Date Written: 2009

Abstract

The authors reanalyzed data from 2 influential studies — A. R. McConnell and J. M. Leibold (2001) and J. C. Ziegert and P. J. Hanges (2005) — that explore links between implicit bias and discriminatory behavior and that have been invoked to support strong claims about the predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test. In both of these studies, the inclusion of race Implicit Association Test scores in regression models reduced prediction errors by only tiny amounts, and Implicit Association Test scores did not permit prediction of individual-level behaviors. Furthermore, the results were not robust when the impact of rater reliability, statistical specifications, and/or outliers were taken into account, and reanalysis of A. R. McConnell & J. M. Leibold (2001) revealed a pattern of behavior consistent with a pro-Black behavioral bias, rather than the anti-Black bias suggested in the original study.

Keywords: Implicit Association Test, predictive validity, discrimination, implicit bias

Suggested Citation

Blanton, Hart and Jaccard, James and Klick, Jonathan and Mellers, Barb and Mitchell, Gregory and Tetlock, Philip, Strong Claims and Weak Evidence: Reassessing the Predictive Validity of the IAT (2009). Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 94, No. 3, 567-582, 2009, DOI: 10.1037/a0014665, U of Penn, Inst for Law & Econ Research Paper No. 15-4, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2559156

Hart Blanton

Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology ( email )

College Station, TX 77843-4235
United States

James Jaccard

Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology ( email )

Miami, FL
United States

Jonathan Klick

University of Pennsylvania Law School ( email )

3501 Sansom Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States
2157463455 (Phone)

Erasmus School of Law ( email )

3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

PERC - Property and Environment Research Center

2048 Analysis Drive
Suite A
Bozeman, MT 59718
United States

Barb Mellers

University of Pennsylvania, Psychology ( email )

3815 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6196
United States

University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School ( email )

3641 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States

Gregory Mitchell (Contact Author)

University of Virginia School of Law ( email )

580 Massie Road
Charlottesville, VA 22903
United States
434-243-4088 (Phone)

Philip Tetlock

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

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