Quake'n and Shake'n... Forever! Long-Run Effects of Natural Disasters: A Case Study on the 1970 Ancash Earthquake

34 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2015

See all articles by Germán Caruso

Germán Caruso

World Bank; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics

Sebastian Miller

Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

Date Written: September 2014

Abstract

This study estimates the effects of the 1970 Ancash earthquake on human capital accumulation on the affected and subsequent generation, 37 years after the shock, using the Peruvian censuses of 1993 and 2007. The main finding is that males affected by the earthquake in utero completed on average 0.5 years less schooling while females affected by the earthquake completed 0.8 years less schooling. Surprisingly, those whose mothers were affected at birth by the earthquake have 0.4 less years of education, while those whose fathers were affected by the earthquake at birth have no effects on their education. The evaluation of other outcomes also suggests that the level of welfare of the affected individuals has been negatively impacted in the long run. The present investigation supports previous literature on shocks in early childhood, providing evidence of the existence of intergenerational transmission of shocks.

Keywords: Long-term effects, Intergenerational transmission, Natural disasters

JEL Classification: D31, I32, C49

Suggested Citation

Caruso, German and Miller, Sebastian, Quake'n and Shake'n... Forever! Long-Run Effects of Natural Disasters: A Case Study on the 1970 Ancash Earthquake (September 2014). IDB Working Paper No. IDB-WP-535, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2559638 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2559638

German Caruso (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics ( email )

410 David Kinley Hall
1407 W. Gregory
Urbana, IL 61801
United States

Sebastian Miller

Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) ( email )

1300 New York Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20577
United States

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