Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India?

20 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2015

See all articles by Kamiar Mohaddes

Kamiar Mohaddes

University of Cambridge - Judge Business School; University of Cambridge - King's College, Cambridge

Mehdi Raissi

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department

Date Written: December 2014

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989-2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CSDL)approach of Chudik et al. (2013) as well as the standard panel ARDL method for estimation — to account for cross-state heterogeneity and dependence, dynamics and feedback effects. Our findings suggest that, on average, there is a negative long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. We also find statistically-significant inflation-growth threshold effects in the case of states with persistently-elevated inflation rates of above 5.5percent. This suggest the need for the Reserve Bank of India to balance the short-term growth inflation trade-off, in light of the long-term negative effects on growth of persistently-high inflation.

Keywords: Inflation, India, Economic growth, Consumer price indexes, Time series, Panel analysis, threshold effects, cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence., inflation rate, economics, money, monetary policy, variables, gdp, lags, inflation rates, growth rate, cd, trade, real gdp, theory, economic theory, phillips curve, econometrics, macroeconomics, human capital, monetary fund, value, marginal product, wholesale price index, adverse effect, taxation, expectations, development economics, reserve bank, oil price, demand for money, unemployment, wages, debt, guarantee, interest, monetary policies, deflation, economic surveys, disinflation, demand-side factors, transactions costs, utility, payment

JEL Classification: C23, E31, O40

Suggested Citation

Mohaddes, Kamiar and Raissi, Mehdi, Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India? (December 2014). IMF Working Paper No. 14/222, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2561247

Kamiar Mohaddes (Contact Author)

University of Cambridge - Judge Business School ( email )

Trumpington Street
Cambridge, CB2 1AG
United Kingdom
+44 (0)1223 766933 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.mohaddes.org/

University of Cambridge - King's College, Cambridge ( email )

King's Parade
Cambridge, CB2 1ST
United Kingdom
+44 (0)1223 766933 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.mohaddes.org/

Mehdi Raissi

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/mehdiraissi/

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