Can Demography Affect Inflation and Monetary Policy?
50 Pages Posted: 10 Feb 2015
Date Written: February 2015
Several countries are concurrently experiencing historically low inflation rates and ageing populations. Is there a connection, as recently suggested by some senior central bankers? We undertake a comprehensive test of this hypothesis in a panel of 22 countries over the 1955-2010 period. We find a stable and significant correlation between demography and low-frequency inflation. In particular, a larger share of dependents (ie young and old) is correlated with higher inflation, while a larger share of working age cohorts is correlated with lower inflation. The results are robust to different country samples, time periods, control variables and estimation techniques. We also find a significant, albeit unstable, relationship between demography and monetary policy.
Keywords: demography, ageing, inflation, monetary policy
JEL Classification: E31, E52, J11
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation