The Relevance of International Spillovers and Asymmetric Effects in the Taylor Rule

CEPS Working Documents No. 403

19 Pages Posted: 14 Feb 2015

See all articles by Joscha Beckmann

Joscha Beckmann

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration

Ansgar Hubertus Belke

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Centre for European Policy Studies

Christian Dreger

European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

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Date Written: February 11, 2015

Abstract

Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both international spillovers, for instance international dependencies in the interest rate-setting of central banks, and nonlinear reaction patterns can offer a more realistic specification of the Taylor rule in the main industrial countries. The inclusion of international spillovers and, even more, nonlinear dynamics improves the explanatory power of standard Taylor reaction functions. Deviations from Taylor rates tend to be smaller and their negative trend can be eliminated.

Keywords: Taylor, Taylor rule, Taylor benchmark, Taylor rates, Taylor reaction functions

Suggested Citation

Beckmann, Joscha and Belke, Ansgar Hubertus and Dreger, Christian, The Relevance of International Spillovers and Asymmetric Effects in the Taylor Rule (February 11, 2015). CEPS Working Documents No. 403, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2564510

Joscha Beckmann

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Universitätsstr. 9
Essen, 45141
Germany

Ansgar Hubertus Belke (Contact Author)

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Universitätsstr. 9
Essen, 45141
Germany

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Centre for European Policy Studies ( email )

1 Place du Congres, 1000
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

Christian Dreger

European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) ( email )

Frankfurt (Oder)
Germany

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) ( email )

Beijing, 100732
China

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