GLM Estimation of Trade Gravity Models with Fixed Effects

36 Pages Posted: 17 Feb 2015

See all articles by Peter H. Egger

Peter H. Egger

Ifo Institute for Economic Research - International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment; Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Kevin E. Staub

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: February 2015

Abstract

Many empirical gravity models are now based on generalized linear models (GLM), of which the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator is a prominent example and the most-frequently used estimator. Previous literature on the performance of these estimators has primarily focussed on the role of the variance function for the estimatorsÂ’ behavior. We add to this literature by studying the small-sample performance of estimators in a data-generating process that is fully consistent with general equilibrium economic models of international trade. Economic theory suggests that (i) importer- and exporter-specific effects need to be accounted for in estimation, and (ii) that they are correlated with bilateral trade costs through general-equilibrium (or balance-of-payments) restrictions. We compare the performance of structural estimators, fixed effects estimators, and quasi-differences estimators in such settings, using the GLM approach as a unifying framework.

Keywords: fixed effects, generalized linear models, gravity models

JEL Classification: C23, F14

Suggested Citation

Egger, Peter H. and Staub, Kevin E., GLM Estimation of Trade Gravity Models with Fixed Effects (February 2015). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10428, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2566331

Peter H. Egger (Contact Author)

Ifo Institute for Economic Research - International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment ( email )

Poschingerstr. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
+49 0 89 9224 1238 (Phone)
+49 0 89 985369 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page?_pageid=36,425628&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich

Schackstr. 4
Munich, 80539
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Kevin E. Staub

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics ( email )

Melbourne, Victoria 3010
Australia

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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