What Is the Correlation between Twitter, Polls and the Popular Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Correction)

21 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2015

See all articles by Anne Washington

Anne Washington

George Mason University - School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs

Jason Bennett Thatcher

Clemson University

David Morar

George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government, Students

Kyle LePrevost

Clemson University

Date Written: February 17, 2015

Abstract

This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse on social media and elections, by evaluating Twitter activity during the 2012 United States presidential campaign. We specifically ask: what is the correlation between Twitter, polls and the popular vote? In response to current debates on methods, we evaluated multiple configurations of Election Day Twitter activity. The Twitter activity in our study included a commercial proprietary sentiment analysis, dictionary-based sentiment analysis, and volume of messages analyzed at multiple time periods. We normalized all data by converting values into binary proportions for the two major candidates. Both the number of messages and multiple forms of sentiment analysis were analyzed. This is a correction to our preliminary results presented at the APSA 2013 conference. After losing access to our original data source, we were not able to verify the statistical analysis in the original paper.

Keywords: twitter, politics, elections

Suggested Citation

Washington, Anne and Thatcher, Jason Bennett and Morar, David and LePrevost, Kyle, What Is the Correlation between Twitter, Polls and the Popular Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Correction) (February 17, 2015). APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper; GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 15-13. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2566441

Anne Washington (Contact Author)

George Mason University - School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs ( email )

Founders Hall
3351 Fairfax Dr.
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

HOME PAGE: http://washington.gmu.edu

Jason Bennett Thatcher

Clemson University ( email )

David Morar

George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government, Students ( email )

Founders Hall, Fifth Floor
3351 Fairfax Drive, MS 3B1
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

Kyle LePrevost

Clemson University ( email )

No Address Available

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