What Is the Correlation between Twitter, Polls and the Popular Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Correction)
21 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2015
Date Written: February 17, 2015
This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse on social media and elections, by evaluating Twitter activity during the 2012 United States presidential campaign. We specifically ask: what is the correlation between Twitter, polls and the popular vote? In response to current debates on methods, we evaluated multiple configurations of Election Day Twitter activity. The Twitter activity in our study included a commercial proprietary sentiment analysis, dictionary-based sentiment analysis, and volume of messages analyzed at multiple time periods. We normalized all data by converting values into binary proportions for the two major candidates. Both the number of messages and multiple forms of sentiment analysis were analyzed. This is a correction to our preliminary results presented at the APSA 2013 conference. After losing access to our original data source, we were not able to verify the statistical analysis in the original paper.
Keywords: twitter, politics, elections
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