What Is the Correlation between Twitter, Polls and the Popular Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Correction)

21 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2015

See all articles by Anne L. Washington

Anne L. Washington

NYU Steinhardt

Jason Bennett Thatcher

Clemson University

David Morar

New York University (NYU) - New York University (NYU), The Steinhardt School of Culture, Education and Human Development, Department of Art and Art Professions, Students

Kyle LePrevost

Clemson University

Date Written: February 17, 2015

Abstract

This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse on social media and elections, by evaluating Twitter activity during the 2012 United States presidential campaign. We specifically ask: what is the correlation between Twitter, polls and the popular vote? In response to current debates on methods, we evaluated multiple configurations of Election Day Twitter activity. The Twitter activity in our study included a commercial proprietary sentiment analysis, dictionary-based sentiment analysis, and volume of messages analyzed at multiple time periods. We normalized all data by converting values into binary proportions for the two major candidates. Both the number of messages and multiple forms of sentiment analysis were analyzed. This is a correction to our preliminary results presented at the APSA 2013 conference. After losing access to our original data source, we were not able to verify the statistical analysis in the original paper.

Keywords: twitter, politics, elections

Suggested Citation

Washington, Anne and Thatcher, Jason Bennett and Morar, David and LePrevost, Kyle, What Is the Correlation between Twitter, Polls and the Popular Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Correction) (February 17, 2015). APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 15-13, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2566441

Anne Washington (Contact Author)

NYU Steinhardt ( email )

New York University
Steinhardt School
New York, NY 10003-711
United States

Jason Bennett Thatcher

Clemson University ( email )

David Morar

New York University (NYU) - New York University (NYU), The Steinhardt School of Culture, Education and Human Development, Department of Art and Art Professions, Students ( email )

82 Washington Square East
New York, NY 10003
United States

HOME PAGE: http://davidmorar.com

Kyle LePrevost

Clemson University ( email )

No Address Available

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
150
Abstract Views
920
rank
282,666
PlumX Metrics