The Impact of Sectoral Changes on Individual Competences: A Reflective Scenario-Based Approach in the Creative Industries

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Forthcoming

Posted: 21 Feb 2015

See all articles by Martin Kamprath

Martin Kamprath

University of Potsdam

Dana Mietzner

Technical University of Applied Sciences Wildau

Date Written: February 19, 2015

Abstract

Many foresight studies concentrate on technological foresight and its impact at the organizational level. However, often these studies overlook the soft factor of employee competences which is critical to adopting technological and organizational changes and to developing the necessary innovation capabilities. This study investigates the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on individual competences in a dynamic sector. The setting of our study is the turbulent creative industries as a whole, where creative and artistic expression merges with changing technological progress. In a scenario study we mainly conducted in 2010, we developed a scenario model for competences to combine individual competences with a scenario approach to investigate how competences are important to the sector shift or need to be enhanced in the future. We use primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors. An influence matrix calculation and a cluster analysis are used to project three different scenarios presenting how future developments of the creative industries will influence the competences needed for creative occupations. Now, five years later, we reflect the accuracy of the developed scenarios via a comparison of today's situation with the situation in the scenarios. We discuss theoretical contributions for the foresight literature and practical implementations for the future of work in general, and in particular for the creative industries case.

Keywords: creative industries, creative economy, digital innovation, convergence, media, entertainment, scenario, foresight, futures studies, technological impact, competences, skills, work, microfoundations, human capital resource, strategic human resources

Suggested Citation

Kamprath, Martin and Mietzner, Dana, The Impact of Sectoral Changes on Individual Competences: A Reflective Scenario-Based Approach in the Creative Industries (February 19, 2015). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2567308

Martin Kamprath (Contact Author)

University of Potsdam ( email )

August-Bebel-Str. 89
Potsdam, DE 14482
Germany

Dana Mietzner

Technical University of Applied Sciences Wildau ( email )

Hochschulring 1
Wildau, DE 15745
Germany
+49-3375-508-199 (Phone)

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