Forecasting Replacement Demand of Durable Goods and the Induced Secondary Material Flows: A Case Study of Automobiles

10 Pages Posted: 25 Feb 2015

See all articles by Shigemi Kagawa

Shigemi Kagawa

Kyushu University - Faculty of Economics

Shinichiro Nakamura

Waseda University - Graduate School of Economics

Yasushi Kondo

Toyama University; Waseda University - School of Political Science and Economics

Kazuyo Matsubae

Tohoku University - Graduate School of Engineering

Tetsuya Nagasaka

Tohoku University - Graduate School of Engineering

Date Written: February 2015

Abstract

The aim of this article is to propose a method for forecasting future secondary material flows by combining a product lifetime distribution analysis with a waste input‐output analysis and present a simple case study of automobiles. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method enables us to estimate replacement demand of new vehicles, number of end‐of‐life (EOL) vehicles arising from the aging of vehicles, volume of shredder scraps recovered from EOL vehicles, and volume of shredder scraps required to meet final consumption in the future.

Keywords: automobile, industrial ecology, product lifetime analysis, replacement demand, shredder scrap, waste input‐output analysis

Suggested Citation

Kagawa, Shigemi and Nakamura, Shinichiro and Kondo, Yasushi and Matsubae, Kazuyo and Nagasaka, Tetsuya, Forecasting Replacement Demand of Durable Goods and the Induced Secondary Material Flows: A Case Study of Automobiles (February 2015). Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 19, Issue 1, pp. 10-19, 2015, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2569429 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12184

Shigemi Kagawa (Contact Author)

Kyushu University - Faculty of Economics ( email )

6-19-1, Hakozaki
Higashi-ku
Fukuoka, Fukuoka 8128581
Japan

Shinichiro Nakamura

Waseda University - Graduate School of Economics ( email )

1-6-1 Nishi-waseda, Shinjuku-ku
Tokyo
Japan

Yasushi Kondo

Toyama University ( email )

Faculty of Economics 3190 Gofuku
Toyama, 930-8555
Japan

HOME PAGE: http://www.toyama-u.ac.jp/~ykondo/

Waseda University - School of Political Science and Economics ( email )

1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda
Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Tokyo 169-8050
Japan

Kazuyo Matsubae

Tohoku University - Graduate School of Engineering

Japan

Tetsuya Nagasaka

Tohoku University - Graduate School of Engineering ( email )

Japan

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