Application of a Multi-Generation Diffusion Model to Milk Container Technology

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 49(3): 281-295

15 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2015

See all articles by Mark Speece

Mark Speece

CMMU College of Management Mahidol University; Thammasat Business School; Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok

Douglas L. MacLachlan

University of Washington Foster School of Business

Date Written: 1995

Abstract

A recently introduced multi-generation model 1181, developed for high-technology industries and tested on a high-tech product class, is applied to a very different situation. It is tested by fitting and forecasting use of three generations of packaging technology in the fluid milk market, glass, paperboard cartons, and plastic, across two submarkets: gallons and half gallons. Results in the gallon market show that the model can be successfully applied to industries not usually associated with high technology, and to specific submarkets, rather than across a whole product class. It is less successful in the half-gallon market, which violates some of the assumptions underlying the model. Extension of the model with the addition of pricing and growth terms allows slightly improved forecasts over the basic model without these terms.

Keywords: diffusion models; milk packaging; packaging technology

Suggested Citation

Speece, Mark and MacLachlan, Douglas L., Application of a Multi-Generation Diffusion Model to Milk Container Technology (1995). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 49(3): 281-295, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2570909

Mark Speece (Contact Author)

CMMU College of Management Mahidol University

69 Vipawadee Rangsit Road
Samsennai, Phayathai District
Bangkok, Bangkok 10400
Thailand

Thammasat Business School

2 Prachan Road
Pra Nakorn
Bangkok, Bangkok 10200
Thailand

Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok ( email )

Prachachuen Road
Bangkok, 10210
Thailand

Douglas L. MacLachlan

University of Washington Foster School of Business ( email )

Seattle, WA 98195
United States
206-543-4562 (Phone)
206-543-7472 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.foster.washington.edu/centers/facultyresearch/facultyprofiles/Lists/Faculty%20Contact%20I

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