Forecasting Hong Kong FAX Installations with a New Product Diffusion Model

Hong Kong Journal of Business Management 12: 37-55

20 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2015

See all articles by Mark Speece

Mark Speece

CMMU College of Management Mahidol University; Thammasat Business School; Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok

Douglas L. MacLachlan

University of Washington Foster School of Business

Date Written: 1994

Abstract

New product diffusion models have rarely been tested in an East Asian situation, and not on data showing seasonality. This study shows that a basic mixed influence diffusion model fits cumulative FAX line installations in Hong Kong quite well. Results indicate that Hong Kong businesses are somewhat less innovative but substantially more imitative than typical in Western applications. Simple use of multiplicative monthly indices allows good fit to monthly installations. These descriptive results are obtained after considerable data is available, and the product is well into the product life cycle. If product managers had needed to make decisions on FAXs early in the product life cycle, the model would have given very poor forecasts. By looking at the pattern of change in model parameters over the early part of the data, though, more reliable estimates can be obtained, resulting in better forecasts.

Keywords: new product diffusion models; parameter estimation; FAX; Hong Kong

Suggested Citation

Speece, Mark and MacLachlan, Douglas L., Forecasting Hong Kong FAX Installations with a New Product Diffusion Model (1994). Hong Kong Journal of Business Management 12: 37-55, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2570913

Mark Speece (Contact Author)

CMMU College of Management Mahidol University

69 Vipawadee Rangsit Road
Samsennai, Phayathai District
Bangkok, Bangkok 10400
Thailand

Thammasat Business School

2 Prachan Road
Pra Nakorn
Bangkok, Bangkok 10200
Thailand

Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok ( email )

Prachachuen Road
Bangkok, 10210
Thailand

Douglas L. MacLachlan

University of Washington Foster School of Business ( email )

Seattle, WA 98195
United States
206-543-4562 (Phone)
206-543-7472 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.foster.washington.edu/centers/facultyresearch/facultyprofiles/Lists/Faculty%20Contact%20I

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
7
Abstract Views
184
PlumX Metrics