Forecasting Fluid Milk Package Type with a Multi-Generation New Product Diffusion Model

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 39(2): 169-175

7 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2015

See all articles by Mark Speece

Mark Speece

CMMU College of Management Mahidol University; Thammasat Business School; Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok

Douglas L. MacLachlan

University of Washington Foster School of Business

Date Written: 1992

Abstract

New product forecasting often focuses only on the new product itself, neglecting the fact that older technologies remain on the market to provide competition. Multi-generation innovation diffusion models are available, but have only rarely been tested on actual data. Furthermore, although causal factors such as pricing have been incorporated into single-generation models, little has been done to include causal factors in multi-generation models. A recently introduced multi-generation model, developed for high-technology industries and tested on a thigh-tech product class, is used here to forecast use of three generations of packaging technology in the fluid milk market: glass, paperboard cartons, and plastic. Results show that the model can be successfully applied to industries not usually associated with high technology, and to specific markets, rather than across a whole product class. the model is extended by incorporating pricing, which brings about slight improvements in already good forecasts.

Keywords: new product diffusion models; milk packaging; pricing, parameter estimation

Suggested Citation

Speece, Mark and MacLachlan, Douglas L., Forecasting Fluid Milk Package Type with a Multi-Generation New Product Diffusion Model (1992). IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 39(2): 169-175, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2570915

Mark Speece (Contact Author)

CMMU College of Management Mahidol University

69 Vipawadee Rangsit Road
Samsennai, Phayathai District
Bangkok, Bangkok 10400
Thailand

Thammasat Business School

2 Prachan Road
Pra Nakorn
Bangkok, Bangkok 10200
Thailand

Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok ( email )

Prachachuen Road
Bangkok, 10210
Thailand

Douglas L. MacLachlan

University of Washington Foster School of Business ( email )

Seattle, WA 98195
United States
206-543-4562 (Phone)
206-543-7472 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.foster.washington.edu/centers/facultyresearch/facultyprofiles/Lists/Faculty%20Contact%20I

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
11
Abstract Views
197
PlumX Metrics