A Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Subsidies in a Small Open Economy

39 Pages Posted: 5 Mar 2015

See all articles by Gerhard Glomm

Gerhard Glomm

Indiana University Bloomington - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Juergen Jung

Towson University - Department of Economics

Date Written: February 26, 2015

Abstract

We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment. We calculate the new steady states, transition paths to the new steady state and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains. Our main results for a 15 percent cut in energy subsidies are: (i) Steady state GDP drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production. (ii) Steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments. (iii) Welfare can rise by as much as 0.6 percent in consumption equivalent terms. (iv) The largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment.

Keywords: energy subsidies, fiscal policy reform, public sector reform, growth

JEL Classification: E210, E630, H550, J260, J450

Suggested Citation

Glomm, Gerhard and Jung, Juergen, A Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Subsidies in a Small Open Economy (February 26, 2015). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5201, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2573591

Gerhard Glomm (Contact Author)

Indiana University Bloomington - Department of Economics ( email )

Wylie Hall
Bloomington, IN 47405-6620
United States
812-855-7256 (Phone)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Juergen Jung

Towson University - Department of Economics ( email )

Baltimore, MD
United States
812-345-9182 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://juejung.github.io/

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