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Credit-Implied Volatility

59 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2015 Last revised: 27 May 2017

Bryan T. Kelly

University of Chicago - Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Gerardo Manzo

Two Sigma Investments; University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Diogo Palhares

AQR Capital Management, LLC

Date Written: October 18, 2016

Abstract

The pricing of corporate credit can be succinctly understood via the credit-implied volatility (CIV) surface. We invert it each month from the firm-by-maturity panel of CDS spreads via the Merton model, transforming CDS spreads into units of asset volatility. The CIV surface facilitates direct comparison of credit spreads at different “moneyness” (firm leverage) and time to maturity. We use this framework to organize the behavior of corporate credit markets into three stylized facts. First, CIV exhibits a steep moneyness smirk: Low leverage (out-of-the-money) CDS trade at a large implied volatility premium relative to highly levered (at-the-money) CDS, holding all other firm characteristics fixed. Second, the dynamics of credit spreads can be described with three clearly interpretable factors driving the entire CIV surface. Third, the cross section of CDS risk premia is fully explained by exposures to CIV surface shocks. Using a structural model for joint asset behavior of all firms, we show that the shape of the CIV surface is consistent with an aggregate asset growth process characterized by stochastic volatility and severe, time-varying downside tail risk. Lastly, we document these same CIV patterns among other credit instruments including corporate bonds and sovereign CDS.

Keywords: CDS, credit risk, implied volatility

Suggested Citation

Kelly, Bryan T. and Manzo, Gerardo and Palhares, Diogo, Credit-Implied Volatility (October 18, 2016). Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 17-12. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2576292 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2576292

Bryan T. Kelly (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Finance ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
773-702-8359 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Gerardo Manzo

Two Sigma Investments ( email )

100 Avenue of the Americas, Floor 16
New York, NY NY 10013
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.gerardomanzo.com

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.gerardomanzo.com

Diogo Palhares

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

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