Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity via Conditional Risk Measures for the Family of Symmetric Generalised Hyperbolic Family
28 Pages Posted: 13 Mar 2015 Last revised: 30 Sep 2015
Date Written: September 28, 2015
This paper addresses one of the main challenges faced by insurance companies and risk management departments, namely, how to develop standardised framework for measuring risks of underlying portfolios and in particular, how to most reliably estimate loss severity distribution from historical data. This paper investigates tail conditional expectation (TCE) and tail variance premium (TVP) risk measures for the family of symmetric generalised hyperbolic (SGH) distributions. In contrast to a widely used Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure, TCE satisfies the requirement of the "coherent" risk measure taking into account the expected loss in the tail of the distribution while TVP incorporates variability in the tail, providing the most conservative estimator of risk. We examine various distributions from the class of SGH distributions, which turn out to fit well financial data returns and allow for explicit formulas for TCE and TVP risk measures. In parallel, we obtain asymptotic behaviour for TCE and TVP risk measures for large quantile levels. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to the multivariate framework, allowing multivariate distri- butions to model combinations of correlated risks, and demonstrate how TCE can be decomposed into individual components, representing contribution of individual risks to the aggregate portfolio risk.
Keywords: Tail value-at-risk, tail conditional expectation, tail variance premium, generalised hyperbolic distributions
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