The Macro Impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court Decisions Regarding the Budgetary Proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)

ISEG-UL Economics Department Working Paper No. 06/2015/DE/UECECEMAPRE

15 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2015

See all articles by António Afonso

António Afonso

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics); ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa; REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics

Jorge Caiado

Technical University of Lisbon (UTL) - Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE)

Miguel St. Aubyn

Technical University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

Date Written: March 12, 2015

Abstract

We review the main budgetary measures not accepted by the Portuguese Constitutional Court in the Budget Laws of 2012, 2013 and 2014. Considering the feedback effect of the fiscal impulse, the impact on the budget balance is -0.42% and of -0.34% of GDP respectively for 2013 and for 2014; in both years the impact of the fiscal expansion could result in rather mitigated reductions in the unemployment rate in the range of 0.1 percent; the impact on the government debt level is around 0.42% of GDP in 2013, declining from then on, in a conservative estimate, and about 2.95% of GDP in 2020 in the worst case scenario.

Keywords: budget balance, fiscal consolidation, debt-to-GDP ratio, Portugal

JEL Classification: E62, E65, H62

Suggested Citation

Afonso, António and Caiado, Jorge and St. Aubyn, Miguel, The Macro Impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court Decisions Regarding the Budgetary Proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014) (March 12, 2015). ISEG-UL Economics Department Working Paper No. 06/2015/DE/UECECEMAPRE, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2577324 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2577324

António Afonso (Contact Author)

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) ( email )

R. Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisbon, 1248-078
Portugal
+351 21 392 5985 (Phone)
+351 21 396 6407 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/homepage/aafonso/research

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

Rua Miguel Lupi 20
Lisbon, 1249-078
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
+351-213 971 196 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://uece.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa ( email )

Rua do Quelhas 6
LISBOA, 1200-781
Portugal

REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics ( email )

ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
Rua Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisboa, 1249-078
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

Jorge Caiado

Technical University of Lisbon (UTL) - Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE) ( email )

Rua do Quelhas, 6
Lisboa, 1200
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~jcaiado

Miguel St. Aubyn

Technical University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) ( email )

Rua do Quelhas, 6
1200-071 Lisboa
Portugal
+351 21 392 5987 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/~mstaubyn

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

ISEG/UTL, Rua Miguel Lupi 20
1249-078 Lisboa
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
+351-213 971 196 (Fax)

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