European Pensions and Global Finance: Continuity or Convergence?

Abstract

The retirement of the baby boom generation is a profound threat to the structure and organisation of continental European retirement systems. Whereas the German financial system, for example, has been often favourably compared to the Anglo-American system of corporate governance, it is argued in some quarters that it will have to become far more "American" if current living standards are to be maintained. The paper begins by suggesting that these issues should be taken seriously by economic geographers; we have a distinctive perspective that should not be lost in the more general debate. Subsequently, the paper focuses on three threads or themes. Why the demographic crisis is a crisis not just a transition; why global finance is deeply implicated in any European solution to the demographic crisis, and; whether continental European countries will be able to maintain their inherited retirement income systems in the face of competition from the Anglo-American model. Unfunded social security benefits threaten the economic welfare of all citizens; those that will be retired and those that will continue working over the next 20 to 30 years. Proffered solutions tend to rely upon the market rather than the state, and tend to match or mimic Anglo-American financial practices. This does not mean that continental Europe need converge upon the Anglo-American system of finance and retirement income provision. But it does seem highly likely that continental European countries will seek solutions that draw upon aspects of this system. Rather than thinking of convergence to the Anglo-American model as the most likely outcome, and rather than thinking of continuity of difference between systems as a viable scenario, European countries will in some way or another be forced to seek accommodation with global finance. Whether continental Europe will be able to hold global finance at bay remains to be seen. Global finance may penetrate national economic and social systems far deeper than ever intended.

JEL Classification: G18, G23, G28