Sustainability of Solar Electricity: The Role of Endogenous Resource Substitution and Market Mediated Responses

40 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Jevgenijs Steinbuks

Jevgenijs Steinbuks

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Gaurav Satija

University of Maryland

Fu Zhao

Purdue University

Date Written: January 1, 2015

Abstract

This study seeks to understand how materials scarcity and competition from alternative uses affects the potential for widespread deployment of solar electricity in the long run, in light of related technology and policy uncertainties. Simulation results of a computable partial equilibrium model predict a considerable expansion of solar electricity generation worldwide in the near decades, as generation technologies improve and production costs fall. Increasing materials scarcity becomes a significant constraint for further expansion of solar generation, which grows considerably slower in the second half of the coming century. Solar generation capacity increases with higher energy demand, squeezing consumption in industries that compete for scarce minerals. Stringent climate policies hamper growth in intermittent solar photovoltaics backed by fossil fuel powered plants, but lead to a small increase in non-intermittent concentrated solar power technology. By the end of the coming century, solar electricity remains a marginal source of global electricity supply even in the world of higher energy demand, strict carbon regulations, and generation efficiency improvements.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Renewable Energy, Primary Metals, Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases, Rural and Renewable Energy, Global Environment Facility

Suggested Citation

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs and Satija, Gaurav and Zhao, Fu, Sustainability of Solar Electricity: The Role of Endogenous Resource Substitution and Market Mediated Responses (January 1, 2015). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7178, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2579877

Jevgenijs Steinbuks (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Gaurav Satija

University of Maryland

College Park
College Park, MD 20742
United States

Fu Zhao

Purdue University

610 Purdue Mall
West Lafayette, IN 47907
United States

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