Sunny, Rainy, and Cloudy with a Chance of Mobile Promotion Effectiveness

Marketing Science, Forthcoming

18 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2015 Last revised: 19 Jun 2017

See all articles by Chenxi Li

Chenxi Li

Fudan University - School of Management

Xueming Luo

Temple University

Zhang Cheng

Fudan University

Xiaoyi Wang

Zhejiang University

Date Written: December 1, 2016

Abstract

Although firms are leveraging weather conditions in promotions, they struggle to quantify the impact. This study exploits field experiments data on weather-based mobile promotions via SMS and APP with over 10 million users. Results find that sunny and rainy weather have first-order main effects. Purchase responses to promotions are higher and faster in sunny weather relative to cloudy weather, whereas purchase responses to promotions are lower and slower on rainy weather. These findings are robust across different measures of weather changes with both backward-looking historical weather and forward-looking forecast, as well as deviations from the normal weather. Also, sunny and rainy weather have second-order interactive effects with ad copies of mobile promotions. Compared with the neutral ad copy, the prevention frame ad copy hurts the initial promotion boost induced by sunshine, but improves the initial promotion drop induced by rainfall. For marketers, these findings imply new opportunities of customer data analytics for more effective weather-based mobile targeting.

Keywords: Mobile, Targeting, Field Experiment, E-commerce, Advertising, Weather

Suggested Citation

Li, Chenxi and Luo, Xueming and Cheng, Zhang and Wang, Xiaoyi, Sunny, Rainy, and Cloudy with a Chance of Mobile Promotion Effectiveness (December 1, 2016). Marketing Science, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2585064 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2585064

Chenxi Li

Fudan University - School of Management ( email )

No. 670, Guoshun Road
No.670 Guoshun Road
Shanghai, 200433
China

Xueming Luo (Contact Author)

Temple University ( email )

1810 N. 13th Street
Floor 2
Philadelphia, PA 19128
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.fox.temple.edu/mcm_people/xueming-luo/

Zhang Cheng

Fudan University ( email )

Beijing West District Baiyun Load 10th
Shanghai, 100045
China

Xiaoyi Wang

Zhejiang University ( email )

38 Zheda Road
Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058
China

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