The Confidence Effects of Fiscal Consolidations

58 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2015

See all articles by Roel M. W. J. Beetsma

Roel M. W. J. Beetsma

University of Amsterdam - Research Institute in Economics & Econometrics (RESAM); European Commission; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Tinbergen Institute; Netspar

Jacopo Cimadomo

European Central Bank

Oana Furtuna

University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute

Massimo Giuliodori

University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE); Tinbergen Institute

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 26, 2015

Abstract

We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-based datasets of De Vries et al. (2011) and Alesina et al. (2014) show that consolidations, and in particular their unanticipated components affect confidence negatively. The effects are stronger for revenue-based measures and when institutional arrangements, such as fiscal rules, are weak. To obtain a more accurate picture of how consolidations affect confidence, we construct a monthly dataset of consolidation announcements based on the aforementioned datasets, so that we can study the confidence effects in real time using an event study. Consumer confidence falls around announcements of consolidation measures, an effect driven by revenue-based measures. Moreover, the effects are most relevant for European countries with weak institutional arrangements, as measured by the tightness of fiscal rules or budgetary transparency. The effects on producer confidence are generally similar, but weaker than for consumer confidence. Long-term interest rates, as a measure of confidence in the sovereign, tend to fall around spending-based consolidation announcements that take place in slump periods. Overall, if confidence is a concern and consolidation is unavoidable, spending-based measures seem preferable. Slump periods are not necessarily bad moments for such measures, while strengthening institutional arrangements may help in mitigating adverse confidence effects.

Keywords: consolidation plans, announcements, revenues, spending, consumer- and business confidence, long-term interest rates, institutional quality, event study

JEL Classification: H60, H61, H62

Suggested Citation

Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. and Cimadomo, Jacopo and Furtuna, Oana and Giuliodori, Massimo, The Confidence Effects of Fiscal Consolidations (March 26, 2015). ECB Working Paper No. 1770, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2585423 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2585423

Roel M. W. J. Beetsma (Contact Author)

University of Amsterdam - Research Institute in Economics & Econometrics (RESAM) ( email )

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Jacopo Cimadomo

European Central Bank ( email )

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Oana Furtuna

University of Amsterdam ( email )

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Tinbergen Institute ( email )

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Netherlands

Massimo Giuliodori

University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE) ( email )

Roetersstraat 11
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
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Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Gustav Mahlerplein 117
Amsterdam, 1082 MS
Netherlands

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