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Replicating Group-Based Trajectory Models of Crime at Micro-Places in Albany, NY

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 32, No. 4. (2016), pp. 589-612, DOI: 10.1007/s10940-015-9268-3

46 Pages Posted: 29 Mar 2015 Last revised: 6 Dec 2016

Andrew Palmer Wheeler

University of Texas at Dallas - School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences

Robert E Worden

John F. Finn Institute for Public Safety; SUNY University at Albany

Sarah J McLean

John F. Finn Institute for Public Safety

Date Written: March 27, 2015

Abstract

Objectives: Replicate two previous studies of temporal crime trends at the street block level. We replicate the general approach of group-based trajectory modelling of crimes at micro-places originally taken by Weisburd, Bushway, Lum and Yang (2004) and replicated by Curman, Andresen, and Brantingham (2014). We examine patterns in a city of a different character (Albany, NY) than those previously examined (Seattle and Vancouver) and so contribute to the generalizability of previous findings.

Methods: Crimes between 2000 through 2013 were used to identify different trajectory groups at street segments and intersections. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models are used to identify the trajectories. Pin maps, Ripley's K and neighbor transition matrices are used to show the spatial patterning of the trajectory groups.

Results: The trajectory solution with eight classes is selected based on several model selection criteria. The trajectory of each those groups follow the overall citywide decline, and are only separated by the mean level of crime. Spatial analysis shows that higher crime trajectory groups are more likely to be nearby one another, potentially suggesting a diffusion process.

Conclusions: Our work adds additional support to that of others who have found tight coupling of crime at micro-places. We find that the clustering of trajectories identified a set of street units that disproportionately contributed to the total level of crime citywide in Albany, consistent with previous research. However, the temporal trends over time in Albany differed from those exhibited in previous work in Seattle but were consistent with patterns in Vancouver.

Keywords: Group-based trajectory, micro-places, hot-spots, point-pattern, spatial criminology

Suggested Citation

Wheeler, Andrew Palmer and Worden, Robert E and McLean, Sarah J, Replicating Group-Based Trajectory Models of Crime at Micro-Places in Albany, NY (March 27, 2015). Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 32, No. 4. (2016), pp. 589-612, DOI: 10.1007/s10940-015-9268-3. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2585987 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2585987

Andrew Wheeler (Contact Author)

University of Texas at Dallas - School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences ( email )

P.O. Box 830688, GR 31
Richardson, TX 75083
United States

Robert Worden

John F. Finn Institute for Public Safety ( email )

423 New Karner Rd
Albany, NY 12205
United States

SUNY University at Albany ( email )

1400 Washington Avenue
Building, Room 109
Albany, NY 12222
United States

Sarah McLean

John F. Finn Institute for Public Safety ( email )

423 New Karner Rd
Albany, NY 12205
United States

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