Forecasting Moscow Ambulance Trips

Posted: 29 Mar 2015 Last revised: 14 Sep 2015

See all articles by Filipp Bykov

Filipp Bykov

Hydrometeorological Center of Russia

Vladimir Gordin

National Research University Higher School of Economics; Hydrometeorological Center of Russia

Date Written: March 27, 2015

Abstract

This paper presents a method and computational technology for forecasting ambulance trips. We used statistical information about the number of the trips in 2009-2013, the meteorological archive, and the corresponding archive of the meteorological forecasts for the same period. We take into account social and meteorological predictors simultaneously. The method may be used operatively for planning in the ambulance service. It may be applied for all trips and for specific subgroups of diseases. The method and the technology may be applied for any megalopolis if the corresponding medical and meteorological information is available.

Keywords: weather forecasting, trips forecasting, disease, air temperature, correlation function, spline, optimization

JEL Classification: C32, C52, C53, C61, C63, I1

Suggested Citation

Bykov, Filipp and Gordin, Vladimir, Forecasting Moscow Ambulance Trips (March 27, 2015). Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 36/STI/2015 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2586023 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2586023

Filipp Bykov

Hydrometeorological Center of Russia ( email )

11-13, B
Predtechensky per
Moscow, 123242
Russia

Vladimir Gordin (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Hydrometeorological Center of Russia ( email )

11-13, B
Predtechensky per
Moscow, 123242
Russia

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