Information and Communication Technologies as Drivers of Social Unrest
14 Pages Posted: 2 Apr 2015 Last revised: 13 Aug 2015
Date Written: March 31, 2015
Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are reducing the transaction costs of information gathering and distribution. This can be a powerful tool for citizens to protest against what they may perceive as social injustice. This century has seen the use of ICTs as tangible media,facilitating movements among disgruntled citizens. Examples include the Arab Spring and the Occupy movements.
This paper aims to ascertain the impact of ICTs on political stability. Scholars have long argued that various socio-cultural factors impact the political stability of a country. Our literature review identifies following factors as significant contributors: income per capita (poverty), education, corruption and freedom of expression. We conduct empirical tests based on a uniquely developed dataset to ascertain, ceteris paribus, whether or not ICTs play a role as a facilitator to change the status quo.
The advent of ICTs opened up a new platform for citizens to coordinate their efforts against perceived injustices. These technologies have facilitated access to critical information and enabled greater interaction among the affected. Some recent studies suggest that social media via ICTs have contributed to the Arab Spring (Ghannam, 2011). However, various others have found evidence which shows that these technologies are not sufficient to result in social unrest (Dewey, Kaden, Marks, Matsushima, & Zhu, 2012).
We thus expect that poverty, education, corruption and freedom of expression may lead to greater unrest as people can more easily organize. From an economic perspective this will mean a shift upward in the relationship curves, and thus social unrest, as ICTs are more widely accessible to the population.
Using data from the World Bank and other international organizations we assemble a cross national panel of dataset that tests the impact of ICTs on political stability(denoted by number of various types of protests in a country per year) in presence of the income, education, corruption and freedom of expression variables to see if these technologies have made governments more or less stable. The dataset has 10 years of data on these factors. We conduct a fixed effect logit regression analysis to ascertain the impact of ICT variables on the social unrest of a country.
ICTs may shorten the time and frequency that people need to be organized. Hysteresis, which is the tendency to remain constant in spite of changes in the environment, reflects the delay that is seen in societies before they are willing to get engaged more visibly when faced with a problem. We may find that ICTs reduce hysteresis, meaning this tendency to remain constant, due to the ease with which people learn about problems.
Researchers have found that knowing what others are doing may influence a person’s behavior. Before the growth of information and communications technologies, however, it would have taken much longer for a person to know what another is thinking. The public now has many tools to communicate with people they don’t even know. With a keystroke a person can easily find information on practically any topic they wish. Mobile phones and Facebook, for example, allow people to connect with others. On the Internet they can find blogs and, via a broadband connection, they can access videos.
Based on the results of the empirical analysis we plan to present a comprehensive framework that will help us understand the dynamics between ICTs, these factors and social unrest. We conclude with policy recommendations.
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Keywords: ICT, Social Unrest, social impact of telecommunication
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