Soft Power and Exchange Rate Volatility

36 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2015

See all articles by Serhan Cevik

Serhan Cevik

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Richard D. F. Harris

University of Bristol, School of Accounting and Finance; affiliation not provided to SSRN

Fatih Yilmaz

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: March 2015

Abstract

Standard models - based exclusively on macro-financial variables - have made little progress in explaining the behavior of exchange rates. In this paper, we introduce a neglected set of “soft power” factors capturing a country’s demographic, institutional, political and social underpinnings to uncover the “missing” determinants of exchange rate volatility over time and across countries. Based on a balanced panel dataset comprising 115 countries during the period 1996–2011, the empirical results are generally robust across different estimation methodologies and show a high degree of persistence in exchange rate volatility, especially in emerging market economies. After controlling for standard macroeconomic factors, we find that the “soft power” variables - such as an index of voice and accountability, life expectancy, educational attainment, the z-score of banks, and the share of agriculture relative to services - have a statistically significant influence on the level of exchange rate volatility across countries.

Keywords: Exchange rates, Foreign exchange market volatility, Econometric models, Exchange rate volatility, trade, emerging market, demographic, market economies, exchange rate fluctuations, emerging market economies, share, currency, bond, life expectancy, currencies

JEL Classification: C32, F33, G15

Suggested Citation

Cevik, Serhan and Harris, Richard D. F. and Yilmaz, Fatih, Soft Power and Exchange Rate Volatility (March 2015). IMF Working Paper No. 15/63, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2594146

Serhan Cevik (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Richard D. F. Harris

University of Bristol, School of Accounting and Finance ( email )

United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/people/person/Richard-Harris-50ffa5fb-0e86-4458-8e8c-8dace6eb3435/

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Fatih Yilmaz

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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