75 Pages Posted: 17 Apr 2015
Date Written: March 27, 2015
Interpretation of historic grain price data may be hazardous owing to systematic grain quality variation – both cross sectionally and over varying time horizons (intra-year, inter-year, long run). We use the English wheat market, 1750-1914, as an example to quantify this issue. First, we show that bushel weight approximates grain quality. Then we show that cross sectional and intra-year variation are substantial and problematic, generating erroneous inference regarding market integration. Long run variation is significant, due to sharply declining international quality differentials, and this impacts estimated cost of living changes. By contrast, inter-year variation is smaller and controlled for more easily.
Keywords: Grain quality, markets, cost of living.
JEL Classification: N01, N50, Q13.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Brunt, Liam and Cannon, E. S., Variations in the Price and Quality of English Grain, 1750-1914: Quantitative Evidence and Empirical Implications. (March 27, 2015). NHH Dept. of Economics Discussion Paper No. 6/2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2594762 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2594762