Evaluation of Chess Gambits

Abstract

A dual engine experimental design previously described (Munshi, Evaluation of alternative continuations of chess openings, 2015) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of chess gambits by comparing ten gambit continuations with their closest mainline non-gambit twin in terms of the probability vector that generates chess game outcomes. Six of the gambits were found to be failed innovations because they changed the probability vector in favor of the opponent. The other four gambits were found to be benign innovations with two of them showing no change in the probability vector and the other two showing that the probability vector was changed in a neutral direction. More than these specific findings, however, the real purpose of the study is to offer an objective and quantitative method that may be used to evaluate any gambit.