Voter Habituation in Developing Democracies: Evidence from South Africa's First Democratic Election

38 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2015 Last revised: 12 May 2015

See all articles by Daniel de Kadt

Daniel de Kadt

University of California, Merced

Date Written: April 25, 2015

Abstract

In a developing democracy, can elections change the behavior of participating citizens? I identify the effect of participating in South Africa's first democratic election in 1994 on future electoral participation, and present the first well-identified evidence that past participation increases future participation in a developing democracy. Participating in 1994 has an intent-to-treat effect of 2.9 percentage points on future participation, and an average treatment effect of between 3.5 and 8.5 percentage points. Given low turnout rates, these effects account for 7-20% of the size of the electorate. To explain this result I introduce a novel theoretical explanation that draws on psychological research -- affective experience habituation. I argue that persistence (or habituation) in voting behavior is partly driven by the creation of associations between first time voting and positive emotional states. The theory is tested within the context of the 1994 election by exploiting racial and geographic variation in electoral experiences.

Keywords: voting behavior, South Africa, habituation

Suggested Citation

de Kadt, Daniel, Voter Habituation in Developing Democracies: Evidence from South Africa's First Democratic Election (April 25, 2015). MIT Political Science Department Research Paper No. 2015-11, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2599085 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2599085

Daniel De Kadt (Contact Author)

University of California, Merced ( email )

P.O. Box 2039
Merced, CA 95344
United States

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