The Inflation and Deflationary Trends in the Global Economy, or 'The Japanese Disease' is Spreading

Journal of Globalization Studies. Volume 5, Number 2 / November 2014, pp. 152-173

22 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2015

See all articles by Leonid Grinin

Leonid Grinin

National Research University Higher School of Economics; Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting; Volgograd Center for Social Research

Andrey Korotayev

Russian State University for the Humanities

Date Written: October 30, 2014

Abstract

Recently among numerous concerns over the European and partly American economies the danger of deflation is rather frequently mentioned. The scholars cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the inflation in the Western countries still remains low.

On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from ‘the Japanese disease’, and this disease can progress or even become chronic. The USA, although to a lesser extent, has the signs of the disease as well.

As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Japan. The present paper defines the reasons of the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also gives some forecasts.

Keywords: inflation, deflation, quantitative easing, prices, investments, center, periphery, the Japanese economy, demand, economic laws

Suggested Citation

Grinin, Leonid and Korotayev, Andrey, The Inflation and Deflationary Trends in the Global Economy, or 'The Japanese Disease' is Spreading (October 30, 2014). Journal of Globalization Studies. Volume 5, Number 2 / November 2014, pp. 152-173. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2600810

Leonid Grinin (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting ( email )

Rozhdestvenka 12
Moscow, 107031
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.sociostudies.org/ecbsf/

Volgograd Center for Social Research ( email )

Russia, 400079, Volgograd, Kirova street, 143
Volgograd, 400079
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/

Andrey Korotayev

Russian State University for the Humanities

6
Miusskaya Square
Moscow, GSP-3, 125993
Russia

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