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Stochastic Models for the Disaggregation of Precipitation Time Series on Sub-Daily Scale: Identification of Parameters by Global Optimization

25 Pages Posted: 5 May 2015  

Veronica Villani

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)

Daniela Di Serafino

Second University of Naples

Rianna Guido

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC)

Paola Mercogliano

Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) - Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC)

Date Written: April 5, 2015

Abstract

Stochastic disaggregation model, based on coupling of the modified version of the Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse stochastic rainfall model and proportional adjusting procedure, is shown to disaggregate daily observed precipitation to hourly scale. Furthermore synthetic hourly time series are generated.This model requires the identification of a set of parameters that allow to reproduce, as well as possible, the statistical properties of the observed precipitation. The identification is formulated as a global optimization problem. A comparison between observed and modeled statistics of the precipitation time series is presented for the weather station of San Martino Valle Caudina (Southern Italy).

Keywords: Calibration, Optimization, Rainfall Disaggregation, Subdaily Precipitation, Temporal Downscaling, Synthetic Time Series Generation

Suggested Citation

Villani, Veronica mname and Di Serafino, Daniela mname and Guido, Rianna mname and Mercogliano, Paola mname, Stochastic Models for the Disaggregation of Precipitation Time Series on Sub-Daily Scale: Identification of Parameters by Global Optimization (April 5, 2015). CMCC Research Paper No. RP0256. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2602889 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2602889

Veronica Villani (Contact Author)

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Daniela Di Serafino

Second University of Naples ( email )

Via Antonio Vivaldi, 43
Caserta CE, Caserta 81100
Italy

Rianna Guido

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC) ( email )

Lecce
Italy

Paola Mercogliano

Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) - Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory ( email )

Capua (CE)
Italy

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC) ( email )

Lecce
Italy

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