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Drivers of Sovereign Recovery Risk

33 Pages Posted: 7 May 2015 Last revised: 3 Nov 2015

Marcel Müller

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - Institute for Finance

Marliese Uhrig-Homburg

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - Institute for Finance

Date Written: October 30, 2015

Abstract

What determines the recovery of sovereign bond holders in the face of a credit event? This paper studies empirical determinants for sovereign recovery risk. Guided by theoretically backed hypotheses we use a sample of 102 past restructurings and empirically test the relation between haircut sizes and their economic drivers. We find a significant linkage of the haircut size to a debtor's ability to repay as well as his willingness. Distinguishing between excusable and strategic defaulters in a new way enables us to empirically show that punishment is of markedly increased effectiveness amongst the strategic cohort. Based on these results we develop a forecasting-model for predicting haircuts conditional on the restructurings taking place within the year ahead and assess the performance of the model by applying it to a sample of the 45 restructurings observed from 1991 to present.

Keywords: sovereign debt, sovereign recovery risk

JEL Classification: F34, G15, H63

Suggested Citation

Müller, Marcel and Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, Drivers of Sovereign Recovery Risk (October 30, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2603104 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2603104

Marcel Müller (Contact Author)

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - Institute for Finance ( email )

P.O. Box 6980
D-76049 Karlsruhe, DE
Germany
+49 721 6084 8187 (Phone)
+49 721 6084 8190 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://derivate.fbv.kit.edu/english/Staff_1444.php

Marliese Uhrig-Homburg

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - Institute for Finance ( email )

P.O. Box 6980
D-76049 Karlsruhe, DE
Germany
+49 721 6084 8183 (Phone)
+49 721 6084 8190 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://derivate.fbv.kit.edu/english/index.php

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