Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony

28 Pages Posted: 7 May 2015

See all articles by Steffen Henzel

Steffen Henzel

Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Robert Lehmann

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Klaus Wohlrabe

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Date Written: April 30, 2015

Abstract

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each quarter. It appears that regional survey results in particular improve forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional indicators. Hard indicators from the German manufacturing sector and the Composite Leading Indicator for Europe also deliver useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter.

Keywords: nowcasting, regional gross domestic product, bridge equations, regional economic forecasting, mixed frequency

JEL Classification: C220, C520, C530, E370, R110

Suggested Citation

Henzel, Steffen and Lehmann, Robert and Wohlrabe, Klaus, Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony (April 30, 2015). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5336. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2603601

Steffen Henzel

Ifo Institute for Economic Research ( email )

Poschingerstr. 5
Munich
Germany

Robert Lehmann (Contact Author)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Einsteinstrasse 3
Dresden, 01069
Germany
+49(0)351 / 26476-21 (Phone)
+49(0)351 / 26476-20 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/CESifo-Group/ifoDresden/ifo-ND-Mitarbeiter/cvifod-lehmann_r.html

Klaus Wohlrabe

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
26
Abstract Views
308
PlumX Metrics