Explaining Movements in Completed Fertility Across Cohorts

29 Pages Posted: 23 Apr 2004 Last revised: 29 Mar 2021

See all articles by Lawrence W. Kenny

Lawrence W. Kenny

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 1978

Abstract

A life cycle model of fertility based on the quantity-quality model of fertility successfully explains changes in completed fertility in a period in which completed fertility first fell and then rose. This model furthermore accurately predicts the timing and level of the subsequent peak in completed fertility. Regressions based on Easterlin's relative economic status theory of fertility are less successful in predicting fertility over a fifteen year period than regressions based on the quantity-quality model. Upon investigation, much of the increase in completed fertility associated with the baby boom appears to be primarily attributable to sporadic wage growth.

Suggested Citation

Kenny, Lawrence W., Explaining Movements in Completed Fertility Across Cohorts (July 1978). NBER Working Paper No. w0270, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=260465

Lawrence W. Kenny (Contact Author)

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration - Department of Economics ( email )

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Gainesville, FL 32611-7140
United States
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