Trade Network Centrality and Currency Risk Premia

60 Pages Posted: 23 May 2015 Last revised: 23 Aug 2016

Robert J. Richmond

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance

Date Written: August 2016

Abstract

I uncover an economic source of exposure to global risk that drives international asset prices. Countries which are more central in the global trade network have lower interest rates and currency risk premia. As a result, an investment strategy that is long in currencies of peripheral countries and short in currencies of central countries explains unconditional carry trade returns. To explain these findings, I present a general equilibrium model where central countries’ consumption growth is more exposed to global consumption growth shocks. This causes the currencies of central countries to appreciate in bad times, resulting in lower interest rates and currency risk premia. In the data, central countries’ consumption growth is more correlated with world consumption growth than peripheral countries’, further validating the proposed mechanism.

Keywords: Exchange Rates, Currency Risk Premia, Carry Trade, UIP, Trade, Networks

JEL Classification: F31, F41, G12, G15, E44

Suggested Citation

Richmond, Robert J., Trade Network Centrality and Currency Risk Premia (August 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2607735 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2607735

Robert J. Richmond (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance ( email )

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

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