The Boom, the Bust and the Future of Homeownership

41 Pages Posted: 19 May 2015

See all articles by Stuart A. Gabriel

Stuart A. Gabriel

University of California, Los Angeles - Anderson School of Management

Stuart S. Rosenthal

Syracuse University - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: Summer 2015

Abstract

This article investigates the boom and bust in U.S. homeownership rates over the 2000–2010 period. Using individual‐level census data, we first estimate 204 homeownership regressions stratified by household age (21, 22, …, 89) and survey year (2000, 2005 and 2009). Shift‐share methods confirm that changes in the model coefficients that reflect household attitudes, lending standards and other market conditions — but not population socioeconomics — were the primary driver of the boom and bust in homeownership over the decade. This pattern holds for nearly all age groups and is more pronounced for recent movers. Results also suggest that homeownership rates may have come close to bottoming out in early 2013 at 65% after falling roughly four percentage points from their peak in 2006. This suggests little lasting effect of the grand homeownership policy experiment of recent decades.

Suggested Citation

Gabriel, Stuart A. and Rosenthal, Stuart S., The Boom, the Bust and the Future of Homeownership (Summer 2015). Real Estate Economics, Vol. 43, Issue 2, pp. 334-374, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2607752 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12075

Stuart A. Gabriel (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles - Anderson School of Management ( email )

110 Westwood Plaza
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States
310-825-2922 (Phone)
310-206-5455 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.anderson.ucla.edu

Stuart S. Rosenthal

Syracuse University - Department of Economics ( email )

426 Eggers Hall
Syracuse, NY 13244-1020
United States
315-443-3809 (Phone)

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