Future Costs of Key Low-Carbon Energy Technologies: Harmonization and Aggregation of Energy Technology Expert Elicitation Data

Posted: 20 May 2015

See all articles by Erin Baker

Erin Baker

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Laura Diaz Anadon

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) ; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Max Henrion

Independent

Lara Reis

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Date Written: May 19, 2015

Abstract

In this paper we standardize, compare, and aggregate results from thirteen surveys of technology experts, performed over a period of five years using a range of different methodologies, but all aiming at eliciting expert judgment on the future cost of five key energy technologies and how future costs might be influenced by public R&D investments. To enable researchers and policy makers to use the wealth of collective knowledge obtained through these expert elicitations we develop and present a set of assumptions to harmonize them. We also aggregate expert estimates within each study and across studies to facilitate the comparison. The analysis showed that, as expected, technology costs are expected to go down by 2030 with increasing levels of R&D investments, but that there is not a high level of agreement between individual experts or between studies regarding the technology areas that would benefit the most from R&D investments. This indicates that further study of prospective cost data may be useful to further inform R&D investments. We also found that the contributions of additional studies to the variance of costs in one technology area differed by technology area, suggesting that (barring new information about the downsides of particular forms of elicitations) there may be value in not only including a diverse and relatively large group of experts, but also in using different methods to collect estimates.

Keywords: Expert Elicitation, Energy Technology Cost, R&D Investments

JEL Classification: O30, O32, Q40, Q55

Suggested Citation

Baker, Erin and Bosetti, Valentina and Diaz Anadon, Laura and Henrion, Max and Reis, Lara, Future Costs of Key Low-Carbon Energy Technologies: Harmonization and Aggregation of Energy Technology Expert Elicitation Data (May 19, 2015). FEEM Working Paper No. 45.2015, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2608004

Erin Baker (Contact Author)

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department ( email )

Department of Operations and Information Managemen
Amherst, MA 01003
United States

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Laura Diaz Anadon

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) ( email )

79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Max Henrion

Independent ( email )

No Address Available
United States

Lara Reis

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
423
PlumX Metrics