Don't Know What You Got: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Neuroticism and Nonresponse

Political Science Research and Methods, Forthcoming

72 Pages Posted: 22 May 2015 Last revised: 26 Oct 2016

See all articles by Jonathan Klingler

Jonathan Klingler

University of Mississippi

Gary Hollibaugh

University of Notre Dame - Department of Political Science

Adam Ramey

New York University Abu Dhabi

Date Written: October 24, 2016

Abstract

Individuals who are more sensitive to negative outcomes from error are more likely to provide nonresponses in surveys. We argue Neurotics’ sensitivity to negative outcomes leads them to avoid gathering costly information and forming/reporting opinions about stimuli. Using data from the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we show Neuroticism is strongly and positively associated with NA/DK responses when placing politicians on a 7-point ideological scale. We then introduce to political science a Bayesian hierarchical model that allows nonresponse to be generated by both a lack of information as well as disincentives for response. Using this model, we show that the NA/DK responses in these data are due to inhibited information collection and indecision from error avoidance by Neurotics.

Keywords: personality psychology, political psychology, missing data, Bayesian methods, hierarchical modeling, political methodology

JEL Classification: C11, D7, D79

Suggested Citation

Klingler, Jonathan and Hollibaugh, Gary and Ramey, Adam, Don't Know What You Got: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Neuroticism and Nonresponse (October 24, 2016). Political Science Research and Methods, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2608719 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2608719

Jonathan Klingler

University of Mississippi ( email )

237 Deupree Hall
University, MS 38677
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.jonathandklingler.com

Gary Hollibaugh (Contact Author)

University of Notre Dame - Department of Political Science ( email )

2060 Jenkins Nanovic Halls
Notre Dame, IN 46556
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.garyhollibaugh.com

Adam Ramey

New York University Abu Dhabi ( email )

PO Box 129188
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

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