Business Cycles, Technology and Exports

49 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2015

See all articles by Dario Guarascio

Dario Guarascio

Sapienza University of Rome

Mario Pianta

University of Urbino

Matteo Lucchese

Government of the Italian Republic (Italy) - National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Francesco Bogliacino

National University of Colombia - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 30, 2015

Abstract

This article shows -- on both conceptual and empirical grounds -- the importance of business cycles in affecting key relationships between innovation and international performance. While periods of upswing are characterized by a well-documented 'virtuous circle' between innovation inputs, new products and export success, during downswings most of the positive relationships and feedbacks tend to break down. The findings of Guarascio et al. (2014) on the long-term relationships between R&D, new products and exports are confirmed and qualified with major novelties. But when the period of analysis is split between periods of upswing and downswing -- following Lucchese and Pianta (2012) -- significantly different relationships emerge. The empirical test is carried out for the period 1995-2010 at the industry level, on 21 manufacturing and 17 service sectors; country coverage includes Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, representing a very large part of the European economy.

Keywords: Business cycles, Innovation, Export, Three Stage Least Squares.

JEL Classification: F41, F43, O31, O33, C3.

Suggested Citation

Guarascio, Dario and Pianta, Mario and Lucchese, Matteo and Bogliacino, Francesco, Business Cycles, Technology and Exports (May 30, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2613190 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2613190

Dario Guarascio (Contact Author)

Sapienza University of Rome ( email )

Rome
Italy

Mario Pianta

University of Urbino ( email )

Via Saffi 2
Urbino, Pesaro-Urbino 61029
Italy

Matteo Lucchese

Government of the Italian Republic (Italy) - National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) ( email )

Via Cesare Balbo 16
00184 Rome, 0185
Italy

Francesco Bogliacino

National University of Colombia - Department of Economics ( email )

Carrera 30 Calle 45 Ciudad Universitaria
Bogot√°
Colombia

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