Networks and the Dynamics of Firms' Export Portfolio

35 Pages Posted: 2 Jun 2015

See all articles by Juan José de Lucio Fernández

Juan José de Lucio Fernández

Independent; University of Antonio de Nebrija - Faculty of Law, Economics and Business

Raúl Mínguez

Cámara de España

Asier Minondo

University of Deusto - Deusto Business School

Francisco Requena

University of Sheffield

Date Written: June 2, 2015

Abstract

We use network-analysis tools to identify communities in the web of exporters' destinations. Our network-based community measure is purely outcome-based; it captures multilateral rather than bilateral dependence across countries; and it can be calculated at the industry level. We next use our network-based community measure as a predictor of additional countries chosen by firms expanding their export destinations portfolios. Using data on new Mexican exporters, the probability of choosing a new export destination doubles if it belongs to the same community of any of the firm’s previous destinations. The introduction of the network-based community variable improves the accuracy of the model by up to 19% relative to a model that only includes gravity variables. Industry-specific communities and general communities play similar roles in determining the dynamics of Mexican exporters' country portfolios.

Keywords: export market, network analysis, modularity, extended gravity, Mexico

JEL Classification: F1

Suggested Citation

de Lucio Fernández, Juan José and Mínguez, Raúl and Minondo, Asier and Requena, Francisco, Networks and the Dynamics of Firms' Export Portfolio (June 2, 2015). Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1513. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2613393 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2613393

Juan José De Lucio Fernández (Contact Author)

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

University of Antonio de Nebrija - Faculty of Law, Economics and Business ( email )

Campus de la Berzosa
Hoyo de Manzanares
Madrid, 28420
Spain

Raúl Mínguez

Cámara de España ( email )

Calle de la Ribera del Loira, 12
Madrid, 28042
Spain

Asier Minondo

University of Deusto - Deusto Business School ( email )

Camino de Mundaiz, 50
San Sebastian, 20012
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://paginaspersonales.deusto.es/aminondo/

Francisco Requena

University of Sheffield ( email )

17 Mappin Street
Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT
United Kingdom

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