The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Macro Economy: Evidence from the Pre- and Post- Crisis Periods
Posted: 6 Jun 2015
Date Written: February 15, 2015
In this paper we extract the factors that shape the yield curve and we relate them with macroeconomy. We examine whether the term structure can predict future economic activity by applying a range of econometric approaches both in pre- and post- crisis periods. Furthermore, we assess the strength of the yield curve forecasting power on economic activity for Eurozone. In addition, we analyze the effect of increased market risk in the term structure and economic activity whereas we evaluate the impact of monetary policy in the term structure. We find that the forecasting performance of term structure deteriorates in the post-crisis period and that credit spreads forecast better Eurozone industrial production. Also, as we find, one significant explanation for the change in predictability during pre- and post- crisis periods is due to the effect of market risk on the term structure during the post-crisis period. Finally, we argue that monetary policy determines significantly the term structure either by conventional or unconventional measures.
Keywords: Term structure, VAR, Principal component analysis, Markov switching regressions, Financial crisis, Monetary policy, Economic activity, Market volatility
JEL Classification: E27, E52, E58, E42, E44
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation