Jump and Volatility Dynamics for the S&P 500: Evidence for Infinite-Activity Jumps with Non-Affine Volatility Dynamics from Stock and Option Markets
34 Pages Posted: 9 Jun 2015 Last revised: 12 Jan 2016
Date Written: January 12, 2016
Relatively little is known about the empirical performance of infinite-activity Levy jump models, especially with non-affine volatility dynamics. We use extensive empirical data sets to study how infinite-activity Variance Gamma and Normal Inverse Gaussian jumps with affine and non-affine volatility dynamics improve goodness of fit and option pricing performance. With Markov Chain Monte Carlo, different model specifications are estimated using the joint information of the S&P 500 index and the VIX. Our paper provides clear evidence that a parsimonious non-affine model with Normal Inverse Gaussian return jumps and a linear variance specification is particularly competitive, even during the recent crisis.
Keywords: Infinite-activity Levy jumps, Non-affine models, MCMC, VIX, Options
JEL Classification: C13, C32, G13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation