Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is it Effective, and, If so, How Does it Work?

43 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2001

See all articles by Mark P. Taylor

Mark P. Taylor

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Lucio Sarno

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: February 2001

Abstract

In this Paper we assess the progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. To this end, we review the theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published within the last decade or so. Our reading of the recent literature leads us to conclude that, in contrast with the profession's consensus view of the 1980s, official intervention can be effective, especially through its role as a signal of policy intentions, and especially when it is publicly announced and concerted. We also note, however, an apparent empirical puzzle concerning the secrecy of much intervention and suggest an additional way in which intervention may be effective but which has so far received little attention in the literature, namely through its role in remedying a coordination failure in the foreign exchange market.

Keywords: Non-Linear Dynamics, Purchasing Power Parity, Real Exchange Rate, Test Power, Unit Root Test

JEL Classification: C10, F31, F41

Suggested Citation

Taylor, Mark Peter and Sarno, Lucio, Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is it Effective, and, If so, How Does it Work? (February 2001). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2690. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=261856

Mark Peter Taylor

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1156
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Lucio Sarno (Contact Author)

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School ( email )

106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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