Simulating Russia's and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions

53 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2015

See all articles by Seth Benzell

Seth Benzell

Chapman University - The George L. Argyros School of Business & Economics; MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy; Stanford University, Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Digital Economy Lab

Eugene Goryunov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Maria V Kazakova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Boston University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Guillermo Lagarda

Global Development Policy Center Boston University

Kristina Nesterova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Andrey Zubarev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: June 2015

Abstract

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.

Suggested Citation

Benzell, Seth and Goryunov, Eugene and Kazakova, Maria V and Kotlikoff, Laurence J. and Lagarda, Guillermo and Nesterova, Kristina and Zubarev, Andrey, Simulating Russia's and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions (June 2015). NBER Working Paper No. w21269, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2618657

Seth Benzell (Contact Author)

Chapman University - The George L. Argyros School of Business & Economics ( email )

333 N. Glassell
Orange, CA 92866
United States

MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy ( email )

245 First Street
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

Stanford University, Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Digital Economy Lab ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Eugene Goryunov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny per., 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Maria V Kazakova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Boston University - Department of Economics ( email )

270 Bay State Road
Boston, MA 02215
United States
617-353-4002 (Phone)
617-353-4449 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Gazetny per. 5-3
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Guillermo Lagarda

Global Development Policy Center Boston University ( email )

53 Bay State Road
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Kristina Nesterova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Andrey Zubarev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
10
Abstract Views
633
PlumX Metrics