Simulating Russia's and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions
53 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2015 Last revised: 12 Feb 2023
Date Written: June 2015
Abstract
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Benzell, Seth and Goryunov, Eugene and Kazakova, Maria V and Kotlikoff, Laurence J. and Lagarda, Guillermo and Nesterova, Kristina and Zubarev, Andrey, Simulating Russia's and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions (June 2015). NBER Working Paper No. w21269, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2618657
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