Simulating Russia's and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions

53 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2015 Last revised: 12 Feb 2025

See all articles by Seth Benzell

Seth Benzell

Chapman University - The George L. Argyros School of Business & Economics; MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy; Stanford University, Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Digital Economy Lab

Eugene Goryunov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Maria V Kazakova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Boston University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Guillermo Lagarda

Global Development Policy Center Boston University; Inter-American Development Bank

Kristina Nesterova

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA)

Andrey Zubarev

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: June 2015

Abstract

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.

Suggested Citation

Benzell, Seth and Goryunov, Eugene and Kazakova, Maria V and Kotlikoff, Laurence J. and Lagarda, Guillermo and Nesterova, Kristina and Zubarev, Andrey, Simulating Russia's and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions (June 2015). NBER Working Paper No. w21269, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2618657

Seth Benzell (Contact Author)

Chapman University - The George L. Argyros School of Business & Economics ( email )

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MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy ( email )

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Stanford University, Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Digital Economy Lab ( email )

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Eugene Goryunov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

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Maria V Kazakova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

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Moscow, 125009
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Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Boston University - Department of Economics ( email )

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617-353-4002 (Phone)
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

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Guillermo Lagarda

Global Development Policy Center Boston University ( email )

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Boston, MA 02215
United States

Inter-American Development Bank ( email )

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Kristina Nesterova

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
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Moscow, St. Petersburg 119571
Russia

Andrey Zubarev

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

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